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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's field is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers improving together. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still