It was two months in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After Rogers curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games has the side had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
